FTSE 100 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
12.23%
increased by 0.77%
1 Week
12.42%
increased by 0.96%
1 Month
13.07%
increased by 1.61%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 05:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 34 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 34 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 34-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0215 | 6.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1043 | 11.55*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8756 | 92.38*** |
0.980
Persistence34d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0215 | 6.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1043 | 11.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8756 | 92.38*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
34 days
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