V-Lab
Dow Jones Industrial Average GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026
1 Day
11.91%
decreased by 0.25%
1 Week
12.10%
decreased by 0.06%
1 Month
12.76%
increased by 0.60%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0201 | 5.83*** |
| αARCH | 0.1013 | 10.29*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8797 | 89.55*** |
0.981
Persistence36d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0201 | 5.83*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1013 | 10.29*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8797 | 89.55*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
36 days
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