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V-Lab

Dow Jones Industrial Average GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 8th, 2026

1 Day

11.91%

decreased by 0.25%

1 Week

12.10%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Month

12.76%

increased by 0.60%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0201
5.83***
αARCH0.1013
10.29***
βGARCH0.8797
89.55***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0201
5.83***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1013
10.29***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8797
89.55***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days