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Dow Jones Industrial Average GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, November 4th, 2026

1 Day

10.90%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

11.14%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

11.98%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, November 4, 2026 at 01:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/03/2024

to

11/03/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Dow Jones Industrial Average GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 36 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 36 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 36-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0200
5.84***
αARCH0.1010
10.28***
βGARCH0.8800
89.77***

0.981

Persistence

36d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0200
5.84***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1010
10.28***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8800
89.77***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

36 days