V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
19.66%
decreased by 1.00%
1 Week
19.87%
decreased by 0.79%
1 Month
20.55%
decreased by 0.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 28 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 28 days.
σ
GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0547 | 6.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1063 | 5.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8688 | 40.20*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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