V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.41%
decreased by 0.74%
1 Week
15.86%
decreased by 0.29%
1 Month
17.26%
increased by 1.11%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8800 | 13.77*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0977 | 34.88*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9692 | 505.05*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1476 | 8.20*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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