V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.63%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Week
18.83%
increased by 0.10%
1 Month
19.48%
increased by 0.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8728 | 3.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0975 | 8.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9688 | 124.50*** |
| νDF | 6.1158 | 2.05** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8728 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0975 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9688 | 124.50*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1158 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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