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V-Lab
V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

17.00%

decreased by 0.28%

1 Week

17.32%

increased by 0.04%

1 Month

18.34%

increased by 1.06%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8737
3.42***
αARCH0.0976
8.67***
βGARCH0.9688
124.03***
νDF6.1061
2.05**

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8737
3.42***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0976
8.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9688
124.03***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1061
2.05**

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days