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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.41%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

15.86%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

17.26%

increased by 1.11%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:34 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jun 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.15 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8800
13.77***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0977
34.88***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9692
505.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1476
8.20***

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days