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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.63%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Week

18.83%

increased by 0.10%

1 Month

19.48%

increased by 0.75%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.8728
3.43***
αARCH0.0975
8.67***
βGARCH0.9688
124.50***
νDF6.1158
2.05**

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.8728
3.43***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0975
8.67***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9688
124.50***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1158
2.05**

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days