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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

21.98%

decreased by 0.85%

1 Week

21.96%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

21.92%

decreased by 0.91%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:49 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.13 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run1.8770
3.44***
αscore0.0977
8.67***
βpersistence0.9688
124.96***
νDF6.1292
2.04**

0.969

Persistence

22d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

1.8770
3.44***
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0977
8.67***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9688
124.96***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.1292
2.04**

Persistence:

0.969

Half-life:

22 days