V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, August 28th, 2026
1 Day
20.16%
increased by 3.07%
1 Week
20.26%
increased by 3.17%
1 Month
20.58%
increased by 3.49%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 28, 2026 at 08:13 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 20, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8768 | 13.68*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0976 | 34.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9690 | 497.93*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1152 | 8.19*** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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