V-Lab
Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
17.00%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
17.32%
increased by 0.04%
1 Month
18.34%
increased by 1.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 09:55 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 22 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 22 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 22-day half-lifev = 6.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.8737 | 3.42*** |
| αARCH | 0.0976 | 8.67*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9688 | 124.03*** |
| νDF | 6.1061 | 2.05** |
0.969
Persistence22d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.8737 | 3.42*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0976 | 8.67*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9688 | 124.03*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.1061 | 2.05** |
Persistence:
0.969
Half-life:
22 days
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