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V-Lab

Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

18.54%

decreased by 1.27%

1 Week

18.89%

decreased by 0.92%

1 Month

19.89%

increased by 0.08%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 23, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0925
7.89***
αARCH0.1872
7.32***
βGARCH0.7226
40.14***
γleverage0.0849
1.94*

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0925
7.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1872
7.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7226
40.14***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0849
1.94*

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days