Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026
1 Day
18.54%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Week
18.89%
decreased by 0.92%
1 Month
19.89%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 09:41 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 1995 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 14 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 14 days.
μ
AMEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 14-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0925 | 7.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1872 | 7.32*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7226 | 40.14*** |
| γleverage | 0.0849 | 1.94* |
0.952
Persistence14d
Half-lifeμ
AMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0925 | 7.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1872 | 7.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7226 | 40.14*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0849 | 1.94* |
Persistence:
0.952
Half-life:
14 days
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