Philippines Stock Exchange PSEi Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
17.28%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
17.78%
increased by 0.16%
1 Month
19.17%
increased by 1.55%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:31 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 23, 1995 to Jun 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 46% more than equivalent positive returns.
μ
AMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0924 | 31.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1873 | 29.14*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7223 | 159.70*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0860 | 7.84*** |
Persistence:
0.953
Half-life:
14 days
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