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V-Lab

S&P 100 Index Asy. MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.02%

increased by 3.79%

1 Week

16.05%

increased by 3.82%

1 Month

16.15%

increased by 3.92%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 100 Index AMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 176% more than equivalent positive returns.

μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 176% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0224
9.21***
αARCH0.0989
6.16***
βGARCH0.7937
75.38***
γleverage0.1744
6.20***

0.980

Persistence

34d

Half-life
μ

AMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0224
9.21***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0989
6.16***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7937
75.38***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1744
6.20***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

34 days