Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P 100 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

9.94%

decreased by 0.40%

1 Week

10.36%

increased by 0.02%

1 Month

11.81%

increased by 1.47%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:01 PM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 100 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible. The volatility power δ = 1.12 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocksδ = 1.12 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0277
7.95***
αARCH0.0828
7.54***
βGARCH0.9068
95.69***
γleverage0.8286
4.78***
δpower1.1222
10.96***

0.977

Persistence

30d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0277
7.95***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0828
7.54***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9068
95.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.8286
4.78***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1222
10.96***

Persistence:

0.977

Half-life:

30 days