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V-Lab

S&P 100 Index MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026

1 Day

15.02%

increased by 2.85%

1 Week

15.17%

increased by 3.00%

1 Month

15.69%

increased by 3.52%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:50 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/16/2024

to

10/16/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 100 Index MEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0213
2.87***
αARCH0.2209
14.31***
βGARCH0.7652
70.53***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
μ

MEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0213
2.87***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.2209
14.31***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7652
70.53***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days