V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026
1 Day
11.32%
decreased by 0.65%
1 Week
11.60%
decreased by 0.37%
1 Month
12.54%
increased by 0.57%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, September 23, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0246 | 2.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.2067 | 13.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7710 | 72.09*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0246 | 2.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2067 | 13.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7710 | 72.09*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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