V-Lab
FTSE 100 Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
10.59%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
10.42%
decreased by 0.55%
1 Month
9.94%
decreased by 1.03%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 69% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.06 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0270 | 34.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1743 | 66.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8098 | 286.96*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.2441 | 29.51*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.0583 | 33.30*** |
Persistence:
0.950
Half-life:
13 days
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