V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
28.65%
decreased by 1.33%
1 Week
28.49%
decreased by 1.49%
1 Month
27.92%
decreased by 2.06%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.37 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
μ
APMEM Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0469 | 7.45*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1257 | 16.92*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8296 | 108.86*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1643 | 11.13*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3658 | 18.34*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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