Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
17.05%
1 Week
17.35%
1 Month
18.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Mar 31, 1993 to Oct 8, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.36 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.
APMEM Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0469 | 1.87* |
| αARCH | 0.1256 | 4.25*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8296 | 27.55*** |
| γleverage | 0.1647 | 2.81*** |
| δpower | 2.3644 | 4.59*** |
0.982
Persistence37d
Half-lifeAPMEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0469 | 1.87* |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1256 | 4.25*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8296 | 27.55*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1647 | 2.81*** |
δ power Transformation power | 2.3644 | 4.59*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
37 days
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