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Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index Asy. Power MEM Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

17.05%

increased by 0.38%

1 Week

17.35%

increased by 0.68%

1 Month

18.34%

increased by 1.67%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 8, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/08/2024

to

10/08/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index APMEM

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Mar 31, 1993 to Oct 8, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 119% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 2.36 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 119% more than positive returnsδ = 2.36 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0469
1.87*
αARCH0.1256
4.25***
βGARCH0.8296
27.55***
γleverage0.1647
2.81***
δpower2.3644
4.59***

0.982

Persistence

37d

Half-life
μ

APMEM Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0469
1.87*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1256
4.25***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8296
27.55***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1647
2.81***
δ

power

Transformation power

2.3644
4.59***

Persistence:

0.982

Half-life:

37 days