V-Lab
Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026
1 Day
16.81%
1 Week
17.06%
1 Month
18.00%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.49 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0226 | 6.28*** |
| αARCH | 0.0857 | 9.13*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9143 | 114.24*** |
| γleverage | 0.3149 | 5.53*** |
| δpower | 1.4930 | 9.36*** |
0.991
Persistence73d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0226 | 6.28*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0857 | 9.13*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9143 | 114.24*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3149 | 5.53*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.4930 | 9.36*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
73 days
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