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Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 7th, 2026

1 Day

16.81%

decreased by 0.74%

1 Week

17.06%

decreased by 0.49%

1 Month

18.00%

increased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 07:04 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/06/2024

to

10/06/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Taiwan Stock Exchange Weighted Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 73 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. The volatility power δ = 1.49 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~73 daysLeverage: Negative returns increase volatility 165% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0226
6.28***
αARCH0.0857
9.13***
βGARCH0.9143
114.24***
γleverage0.3149
5.53***
δpower1.4930
9.36***

0.991

Persistence

73d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0226
6.28***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0857
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9143
114.24***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3149
5.53***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.4930
9.36***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

73 days