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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.46%

decreased by 0.65%

1 Week

12.36%

decreased by 0.75%

1 Month

12.12%

decreased by 0.99%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

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graph of Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days. The volatility power δ = 2.26 sits above 2, so large shocks influence volatility more than quadratically, dominating the response more than in standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-lifeδ = 2.26 · super-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0403
3.13***
αARCH0.1118
2.95***
βGARCH0.7966
16.18***
γleverage-0.0628
-0.89
δpower2.2553
3.83***

0.921

Persistence

8d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

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ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0403
3.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1118
2.95***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7966
16.18***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

-0.0628
-0.89
δ

power

Transformation power

2.2553
3.83***

Persistence:

0.921

Half-life:

8 days