V-Lab
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
203.82%
increased by 8.29%
1 Week
204.68%
increased by 9.15%
1 Month
207.88%
increased by 12.35%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 241.3621 | 0.92 |
| αARCH | 0.1538 | 35.34*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9908 | 102.59*** |
| νDF | 2.0026 | 7,126.76*** |
0.991
Persistence75d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 241.3621 | 0.92 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1538 | 35.34*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9908 | 102.59*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0026 | 7,126.76*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
75 days
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