V-Lab
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026
1 Day
181.69%
decreased by 3.40%
1 Week
181.33%
decreased by 3.76%
1 Month
179.99%
decreased by 5.10%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 10:10 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 10, 2026Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.01 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 106.8667 | 0.81 |
| αARCH | 0.1534 | 33.17*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9892 | 75.15*** |
| νDF | 2.0051 | 3,006.17*** |
0.989
Persistence64d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 106.8667 | 0.81 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1534 | 33.17*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9892 | 75.15*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0051 | 3,006.17*** |
Persistence:
0.989
Half-life:
64 days
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