Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
156.99%
increased by 33.52%
1 Week
156.74%
increased by 33.27%
1 Month
156.05%
increased by 32.58%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:44 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Oct 29, 2026Extended Optimization
Convergence Warning
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.00 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.00 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 97.1025 | 1.06 |
| αscore | 0.1343 | 10.31*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9476 | 18.80*** |
| νDF | 2.0028 | 1,619.09*** |
0.948
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 97.1025 | 1.06 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1343 | 10.31*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9476 | 18.80*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0028 | 1,619.09*** |
Persistence:
0.948
Half-life:
13 days
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