Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
135.83%
increased by 26.68%
1 Week
133.15%
increased by 24.00%
1 Month
125.19%
increased by 16.04%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, October 21, 2026 at 07:29 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Oct 15, 2026Extended Optimization
Model Insight
The estimated Student-t degrees of freedom v = 2.01 sit at the infinite-variance boundary (v → 2): the model is attributing extreme moves to heavy tails rather than to volatility, so the volatility scale is unreliable here. See the boundary-parameters flag.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Unreliable tails: v = 2.01 sits at the infinite-variance boundary
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 46.0581 | 1.07 |
| αscore | 0.1349 | 10.20*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9466 | 18.60*** |
| νDF | 2.0059 | 763.88*** |
0.947
Persistence13d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 46.0581 | 1.07 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1349 | 10.20*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9466 | 18.60*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 2.0059 | 763.88*** |
Persistence:
0.947
Half-life:
13 days
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