V-Lab
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 4th, 2026
1 Day
11.41%
increased by 2.11%
1 Week
11.53%
increased by 2.23%
1 Month
11.81%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 11:28 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Aug 27, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 8 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 8 days.
σ
AGARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 8-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0442 | 2.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1273 | 4.85*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7912 | 17.60*** |
| γleverage | -0.1709 | -1.88* |
0.918
Persistence8d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0442 | 2.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1273 | 4.85*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7912 | 17.60*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.1709 | -1.88* |
Persistence:
0.918
Half-life:
8 days
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