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V-Lab

National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026

1 Day

13.76%

increased by 0.03%

1 Week

14.31%

increased by 0.58%

1 Month

16.24%

increased by 2.51%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0218
15.59***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1290
63.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8622
497.82***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3522
24.44***

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

79 days