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National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

18.10%

decreased by 0.67%

1 Week

18.45%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Month

19.72%

increased by 0.95%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.

Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more

σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0212
3.90***
αARCH0.1285
15.80***
βGARCH0.8633
125.88***
γleverage0.3439
6.07***

0.992

Persistence

84d

Half-life
σ

AGARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0212
3.90***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1285
15.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8633
125.88***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.3439
6.07***

Persistence:

0.992

Half-life:

84 days