National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
18.10%
decreased by 0.67%
1 Week
18.45%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Month
19.72%
increased by 0.95%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.992, volatility shocks have a half-life of 84 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
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High persistence: persistence 0.992, shock half-life ~84 daysAsymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0212 | 3.90*** |
| αARCH | 0.1285 | 15.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8633 | 125.88*** |
| γleverage | 0.3439 | 6.07*** |
0.992
Persistence84d
Half-lifeσ
AGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0212 | 3.90*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1285 | 15.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8633 | 125.88*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3439 | 6.07*** |
Persistence:
0.992
Half-life:
84 days
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