National Stock Exchange CNX Nifty Index AGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 21st, 2026
1 Day
13.76%
increased by 0.03%
1 Week
14.31%
increased by 0.58%
1 Month
16.24%
increased by 2.51%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 20, 2026 at 12:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jul 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 79 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate.
Asymmetry: negative returns raise volatility more
σ
AGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0218 | 15.59*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1290 | 63.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8622 | 497.82*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3522 | 24.44*** |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
79 days
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