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Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

12.12%

decreased by 0.70%

1 Week

11.98%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Month

11.68%

decreased by 1.14%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

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graph of Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1175
4.10***
αARCH0.1441
5.53***
βGARCH0.7554
17.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0228
-0.24
γ20.1827
1.28
γ3-0.3040
-2.54**
γ40.2781
2.02**
γ5-0.2906
-2.28**
γ60.2271
2.45**

0.899

Persistence

7d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1175
4.10***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1441
5.53***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7554
17.56***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ1-0.0228
-0.24
γ20.1827
1.28
γ3-0.3040
-2.54**
γ40.2781
2.02**
γ5-0.2906
-2.28**
γ60.2271
2.45**

Persistence:

0.899

Half-life:

7 days