V-Lab
Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026
1 Day
12.12%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
11.98%
decreased by 0.84%
1 Month
11.68%
decreased by 1.14%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 25, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Sep 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.1175 | 4.10*** |
| αARCH | 0.1441 | 5.53*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7554 | 17.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1827 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -0.3040 | -2.54** |
| γ4 | 0.2781 | 2.02** |
| γ5 | -0.2906 | -2.28** |
| γ6 | 0.2271 | 2.45** |
0.899
Persistence7d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1175 | 4.10*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1441 | 5.53*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7554 | 17.56*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0228 | -0.24 |
| γ2 | 0.1827 | 1.28 |
| γ3 | -0.3040 | -2.54** |
| γ4 | 0.2781 | 2.02** |
| γ5 | -0.2906 | -2.28** |
| γ6 | 0.2271 | 2.45** |
Persistence:
0.899
Half-life:
7 days
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