Ghana Stock Exchange Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 10th, 2026
1 Day
8.95%
decreased by 0.28%
1 Week
9.63%
increased by 0.40%
1 Month
10.98%
increased by 1.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 10, 2026 at 08:38 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 4, 2011 to Apr 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 7 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.0936 | 4.06*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1498 | 5.71*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7503 | 17.71*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=6
| γ1 | -0.0569 | -0.57 |
| γ2 | 0.2471 | 1.62 |
| γ3 | -0.3602 | -2.66*** |
| γ4 | 0.3277 | 2.20** |
| γ5 | -0.3203 | -2.35** |
| γ6 | 0.2279 | 2.28** |
Persistence:
0.900
Half-life:
7 days
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