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V-Lab

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026

1 Day

11.12%

decreased by 0.32%

1 Week

11.56%

increased by 0.12%

1 Month

12.94%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.3474
7.36***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1007
9.55***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8721
72.46***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=6
γ10.0790
5.64***
γ2-0.1171
-5.22***
γ30.0589
3.63***
γ4-0.0434
-2.99***
γ50.0454
2.87***
γ6-0.0318
-2.65***

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days