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V-Lab

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026

1 Day

10.38%

decreased by 0.35%

1 Week

10.68%

decreased by 0.05%

1 Month

11.53%

increased by 0.80%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, October 10, 2026 at 02:27 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0030
0.37
βGARCH0.8543
79.30***
γleverage0.1715
11.79***
λ₁tau intercept0.0200
1.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.1349
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.8455
11.01***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0030
0.37
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8543
79.30***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1715
11.79***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0200
1.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1349
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8455
11.01***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days