V-Lab
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026
1 Day
12.66%
decreased by 0.18%
1 Week
12.65%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Month
12.77%
decreased by 0.07%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| mwindow | 71 | |
| αARCH | 0.0029 | 0.36 |
| βGARCH | 0.8544 | 79.49*** |
| γleverage | 0.1717 | 11.80*** |
| λ₁tau intercept | 0.0199 | 1.64 |
| λ₂forecast adj. | 0.1332 | 2.03** |
| λ₃tau persistence | 0.8474 | 11.18*** |
0.943
Persistence12d
Half-lifeσ
MF2-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0029 | 0.36 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8544 | 79.49*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1717 | 11.80*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0199 | 1.64 |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1332 | 2.03** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8474 | 11.18*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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