V-Lab
S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
10.52%
decreased by 0.34%
1 Week
10.85%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
11.86%
increased by 1.00%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 11:12 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 71 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0029 | 1.44 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8541 | 294.42*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1722 | 48.79*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0203 | 6.37*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.1356 | 6.19*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.8447 | 34.05*** |
Persistence:
0.943
Half-life:
12 days
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