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V-Lab

S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 21st, 2026

1 Day

12.66%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

12.65%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Month

12.77%

decreased by 0.07%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 19, 2026 at 12:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P 500 Equal Weight Index (EWI) MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
mwindow71
αARCH0.0029
0.36
βGARCH0.8544
79.49***
γleverage0.1717
11.80***
λ₁tau intercept0.0199
1.64
λ₂forecast adj.0.1332
2.03**
λ₃tau persistence0.8474
11.18***

0.943

Persistence

12d

Half-life
σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

71
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0029
0.36
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8544
79.49***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1717
11.80***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0199
1.64
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.1332
2.03**
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.8474
11.18***

Persistence:

0.943

Half-life:

12 days