V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
15.89%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
17.26%
increased by 0.76%
1 Month
20.52%
increased by 4.02%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 124% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0972 | 26.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7831 | 123.27*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1206 | 22.76*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0022 | 6.18*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0090 | 8.34*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9901 | 784.52*** |
Persistence:
0.941
Half-life:
11 days
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