V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.58%
decreased by 1.68%
1 Week
22.99%
decreased by 1.27%
1 Month
24.13%
decreased by 0.13%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:52 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 122% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
MF2-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
m window Rolling window length | 21 | |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0978 | 26.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7828 | 122.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1195 | 22.58*** |
λ₁ tau intercept Baseline long-term coefficient | 0.0022 | 6.16*** |
λ₂ forecast adj. Forecast performance sensitivity | 0.0091 | 8.26*** |
λ₃ tau persistence Long-term factor persistence | 0.9899 | 767.39*** |
Persistence:
0.940
Half-life:
11 days
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