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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index MF2-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

15.89%

decreased by 0.61%

1 Week

17.26%

increased by 0.76%

1 Month

20.52%

increased by 4.02%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:49 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index MF2-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 124% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

MF2-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
m

window

Rolling window length

21
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0972
26.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.7831
123.27***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1206
22.76***
λ₁

tau intercept

Baseline long-term coefficient

0.0022
6.18***
λ₂

forecast adj.

Forecast performance sensitivity

0.0090
8.34***
λ₃

tau persistence

Long-term factor persistence

0.9901
784.52***

Persistence:

0.941

Half-life:

11 days