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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026

1 Day

16.34%

increased by 2.67%

1 Week

16.87%

increased by 3.20%

1 Month

18.61%

increased by 4.94%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0571
20.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1491
39.61***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8363
201.09***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1471
15.67***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7495
27.73***

Persistence:

0.975

Half-life:

28 days