V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
18.77%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
19.15%
decreased by 1.03%
1 Month
20.39%
increased by 0.21%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0569 | 20.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1488 | 39.65*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8368 | 201.78*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1468 | 15.63*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7492 | 27.71*** |
Persistence:
0.976
Half-life:
28 days
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