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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026

1 Day

18.77%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

19.15%

decreased by 1.03%

1 Month

20.39%

increased by 0.21%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 8, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0569
20.46***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1488
39.65***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8368
201.78***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1468
15.63***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.7492
27.71***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

28 days