V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 19th, 2026
1 Day
16.34%
increased by 2.67%
1 Week
16.87%
increased by 3.20%
1 Month
18.61%
increased by 4.94%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 05:47 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 68% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.75 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
σ
APARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0571 | 20.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1491 | 39.61*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8363 | 201.09*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1471 | 15.67*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.7495 | 27.73*** |
Persistence:
0.975
Half-life:
28 days
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