V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.14%
1 Week
31.14%
1 Month
31.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 09:12 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 134% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.28 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0655 | 7.36*** |
| αARCH | 0.1715 | 11.66*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8285 | 60.93*** |
| γleverage | 0.3213 | 5.67*** |
| δpower | 1.2792 | 8.39*** |
0.972
Persistence25d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0655 | 7.36*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1715 | 11.66*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8285 | 60.93*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.3213 | 5.67*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.2792 | 8.39*** |
Persistence:
0.972
Half-life:
25 days
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