V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026
1 Day
51.08%
decreased by 5.07%
1 Week
50.65%
decreased by 5.50%
1 Month
49.02%
decreased by 7.13%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9598 | 5.94*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1345 | 40.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9860 | 435.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2024 | 10.59*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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