Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026

1 Day

23.11%

decreased by 0.23%

1 Week

23.39%

increased by 0.05%

1 Month

24.36%

increased by 1.02%

Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 6.22 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst3.9065
1.51
αARCH0.1352
10.04***
βGARCH0.9856
107.33***
νDF6.2215
2.63***

0.986

Persistence

48d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9065
1.51
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1352
10.04***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9856
107.33***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2215
2.63***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

48 days