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V-Lab

Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, August 20th, 2026

1 Day

51.08%

decreased by 5.07%

1 Week

50.65%

decreased by 5.50%

1 Month

49.02%

decreased by 7.13%

Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 19, 2026 at 09:09 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 3, 1997 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.20 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

3.9598
5.94***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1345
40.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9860
435.13***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.2024
10.59***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days