V-Lab
Korea Securities Dealers Association KOSDAQ Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 22nd, 2026
1 Day
23.11%
decreased by 0.23%
1 Week
23.39%
increased by 0.05%
1 Month
24.36%
increased by 1.02%
Analysis last updated: Monday, September 21, 2026 at 09:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 3, 1997 to Sep 18, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 48 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 48 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.22 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 48-day half-lifev = 6.22 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 3.9065 | 1.51 |
| αARCH | 0.1352 | 10.04*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9856 | 107.33*** |
| νDF | 6.2215 | 2.63*** |
0.986
Persistence48d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 3.9065 | 1.51 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1352 | 10.04*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9856 | 107.33*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 6.2215 | 2.63*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
48 days
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