Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
1 Week
14.70%
1 Month
15.37%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 11:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 80 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.60 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.0645 | 1.73* |
| αscore | 0.0744 | 10.18*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9914 | 209.16*** |
| νDF | 7.5968 | 1.67* |
0.991
Persistence80d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.0645 | 1.73* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0744 | 10.18*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9914 | 209.16*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.5968 | 1.67* |
Persistence:
0.991
Half-life:
80 days
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