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Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, October 14th, 2026

1 Day

15.99%

decreased by 0.69%

1 Week

16.13%

decreased by 0.55%

1 Month

16.66%

decreased by 0.02%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 13, 2026 at 11:03 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/13/2024

to

10/13/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.991, volatility shocks have a half-life of 77 trading days (~0.3 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.47 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.991, shock half-life ~77 daysv = 7.47 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.0456
1.74*
αARCH0.0746
10.12***
βGARCH0.9911
202.05***
νDF7.4746
1.70*

0.991

Persistence

77d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.0456
1.74*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0746
10.12***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9911
202.05***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.4746
1.70*

Persistence:

0.991

Half-life:

77 days