Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, July 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.63%
decreased by 0.70%
1 Week
15.90%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Month
16.89%
increased by 0.56%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 at 11:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 139% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0165 | 11.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1841 | 44.55*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9804 | 1,100.28*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0754 | -22.67*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
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