Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index EGARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
15.35%
increased by 0.68%
1 Week
15.62%
increased by 0.95%
1 Month
16.63%
increased by 1.96%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 11:52 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 137% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
EGARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 137% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0163 | 2.82*** |
| αARCH | 0.1838 | 11.15*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9805 | 276.67*** |
| γleverage | -0.0748 | -5.63*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
EGARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0163 | 2.82*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1838 | 11.15*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9805 | 276.67*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | -0.0748 | -5.63*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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