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V-Lab

Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 9th, 2026

1 Day

14.48%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Week

14.94%

increased by 0.17%

1 Month

16.23%

increased by 1.46%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 8, 2026 at 11:46 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Mexican Stock Exchange Mexican Bolsa IPC Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 8, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 14 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.0303
5.92***
αARCH0.1019
8.41***
βGARCH0.8504
52.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0296
-0.93
γ20.0748
1.58
γ3-0.1343
-3.72***
γ40.1831
5.34***
γ5-0.1723
-5.02***
γ60.1175
3.38***
γ7-0.0252
-0.80
γ8-0.0214
-0.70
γ90.0018
0.07

0.952

Persistence

14d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0303
5.92***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1019
8.41***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8504
52.82***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=9
γ1-0.0296
-0.93
γ20.0748
1.58
γ3-0.1343
-3.72***
γ40.1831
5.34***
γ5-0.1723
-5.02***
γ60.1175
3.38***
γ7-0.0252
-0.80
γ8-0.0214
-0.70
γ90.0018
0.07

Persistence:

0.952

Half-life:

14 days