V-Lab
FTSE MIB Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
19.30%
decreased by 0.46%
1 Week
19.32%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
19.37%
decreased by 0.39%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.5041 | 8.25*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1061 | 9.06*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8705 | 74.41*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | 0.0310 | 6.32*** |
| γ2 | -0.0469 | -6.25*** |
| γ3 | 0.0212 | 5.03*** |
Persistence:
0.977
Half-life:
29 days
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