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V-Lab
V-Lab

FTSE MIB Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 25th, 2026

1 Day

16.73%

decreased by 0.27%

1 Week

16.86%

decreased by 0.14%

1 Month

17.30%

increased by 0.30%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, September 24, 2026 at 04:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FTSE MIB Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 29 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.5020
8.29***
αARCH0.1061
9.10***
βGARCH0.8702
74.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0307
6.39***
γ2-0.0465
-6.35***
γ30.0213
5.18***

0.976

Persistence

29d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.5020
8.29***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1061
9.10***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8702
74.51***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ10.0307
6.39***
γ2-0.0465
-6.35***
γ30.0213
5.18***

Persistence:

0.976

Half-life:

29 days