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V-Lab

FT Wilshire 5000 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026

1 Day

12.05%

decreased by 0.18%

1 Week

12.47%

increased by 0.24%

1 Month

13.73%

increased by 1.50%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, July 19, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of FT Wilshire 5000 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jan 2, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 18 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.0625
7.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1071
9.82***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8556
66.26***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=8
γ10.0496
1.67*
γ2-0.0108
-0.23
γ3-0.1272
-3.86***
γ40.1725
5.89***
γ5-0.1589
-6.02***
γ60.1243
4.04***
γ7-0.0556
-1.72*
γ8-0.0003
-0.01

Persistence:

0.963

Half-life:

18 days