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Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, November 13th, 2026

1 Day

17.28%

decreased by 0.21%

1 Week

17.45%

decreased by 0.04%

1 Month

18.07%

increased by 0.58%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, November 12, 2026 at 09:31 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

11/12/2024

to

11/12/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Apr 8, 2005 to Nov 6, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 49 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.9472
5.14***
αARCH0.0679
5.59***
βGARCH0.9180
68.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0442
-3.42***
γ20.0688
3.50***
γ3-0.0304
-2.66***

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.9472
5.14***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0679
5.59***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9180
68.09***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0442
-3.42***
γ20.0688
3.50***
γ3-0.0304
-2.66***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days