NASDAQ Composite Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, November 3rd, 2026
1 Day
23.16%
decreased by 0.64%
1 Week
23.09%
decreased by 0.71%
1 Month
22.88%
decreased by 0.92%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, November 3, 2026 at 01:04 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 30, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 19 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.7566 | 7.35*** |
| αARCH | 0.0997 | 10.37*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8639 | 72.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0127 | 0.45 |
| γ2 | 0.0404 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.1645 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.1987 | 6.91*** |
| γ5 | -0.1442 | -5.61*** |
| γ6 | 0.1044 | 3.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.0632 | -2.28** |
| γ8 | 0.0127 | 0.64 |
0.964
Persistence19d
Half-lifeτ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.7566 | 7.35*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0997 | 10.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8639 | 72.68*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | 0.0127 | 0.45 |
| γ2 | 0.0404 | 0.91 |
| γ3 | -0.1645 | -5.25*** |
| γ4 | 0.1987 | 6.91*** |
| γ5 | -0.1442 | -5.61*** |
| γ6 | 0.1044 | 3.75*** |
| γ7 | -0.0632 | -2.28** |
| γ8 | 0.0127 | 0.64 |
Persistence:
0.964
Half-life:
19 days
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