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V-Lab

NASDAQ Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026

1 Day

14.52%

increased by 0.23%

1 Week

14.76%

increased by 0.47%

1 Month

15.62%

increased by 1.33%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of NASDAQ Composite Index GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.

σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0254
5.47***
αARCH0.0983
11.72***
βGARCH0.8884
104.39***

0.987

Persistence

52d

Half-life
σ

GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0254
5.47***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0983
11.72***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8884
104.39***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

52 days