NASDAQ Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
19.01%
increased by 0.40%
1 Week
19.10%
increased by 0.49%
1 Month
19.41%
increased by 0.80%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:48 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0255 | 5.49*** |
| αARCH | 0.0981 | 11.73*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8887 | 104.72*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0255 | 5.49*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0981 | 11.73*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8887 | 104.72*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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