V-Lab
NASDAQ Composite Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
14.52%
increased by 0.23%
1 Week
14.76%
increased by 0.47%
1 Month
15.62%
increased by 1.33%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 12, 2026 at 12:54 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0254 | 5.47*** |
| αARCH | 0.0983 | 11.72*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8884 | 104.39*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 5.47*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0983 | 11.72*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8884 | 104.39*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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