OMX Stockholm 30 Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
decreased by 0.32%
1 Week
15.44%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
16.20%
increased by 0.66%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0249 | 5.37*** |
| αARCH | 0.0887 | 11.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8985 | 108.52*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0249 | 5.37*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0887 | 11.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8985 | 108.52*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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