V-Lab
Swiss Market Index GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, September 30th, 2026
1 Day
10.91%
decreased by 0.43%
1 Week
11.51%
increased by 0.17%
1 Month
13.19%
increased by 1.85%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 29, 2026 at 05:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 16 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 16 days.
σ
GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 16-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0479 | 3.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.1405 | 11.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8175 | 46.19*** |
0.958
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0479 | 3.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1405 | 11.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8175 | 46.19*** |
Persistence:
0.958
Half-life:
16 days
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