Swiss Market Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 12th, 2026
1 Day
14.73%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
14.90%
decreased by 0.44%
1 Month
15.43%
increased by 0.09%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 05:07 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0476 | 5.69*** |
| αARCH | 0.0273 | 1.60 |
| βGARCH | 0.8352 | 67.38*** |
| γleverage | 0.1895 | 5.04*** |
0.957
Persistence16d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0476 | 5.69*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0273 | 1.60 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8352 | 67.38*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1895 | 5.04*** |
Persistence:
0.957
Half-life:
16 days
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