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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026

1 Day

29.92%

increased by 0.21%

1 Week

30.55%

increased by 0.84%

1 Month

32.75%

increased by 3.04%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1262
19.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
10.98***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8674
184.98***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0474
4.04***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days