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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026

1 Day

29.69%

decreased by 1.52%

1 Week

30.34%

decreased by 0.87%

1 Month

32.58%

increased by 1.37%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1265
19.58***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0952
10.97***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8671
184.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0476
4.05***

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

50 days