S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026
1 Day
27.36%
decreased by 1.31%
1 Week
28.11%
decreased by 0.56%
1 Month
30.70%
increased by 2.03%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1255 | 4.89*** |
| αARCH | 0.0947 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8677 | 46.44*** |
| γleverage | 0.0473 | 1.01 |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1255 | 4.89*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0947 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8677 | 46.44*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0473 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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