V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 28th, 2026
1 Day
29.69%
decreased by 1.52%
1 Week
30.34%
decreased by 0.87%
1 Month
32.58%
increased by 1.37%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 27, 2026 at 08:03 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a notable leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1265 | 19.58*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0952 | 10.97*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8671 | 184.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0476 | 4.05*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
50 days
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