V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, August 18th, 2026
1 Day
29.92%
increased by 0.21%
1 Week
30.55%
increased by 0.84%
1 Month
32.75%
increased by 3.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 08:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a modest leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 50% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1262 | 19.56*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 10.98*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8674 | 184.98*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0474 | 4.04*** |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
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