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V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

25.13%

decreased by 0.98%

1 Week

26.01%

decreased by 0.10%

1 Month

29.01%

increased by 2.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1258
4.88***
αARCH0.0950
2.75***
βGARCH0.8675
46.29***
γleverage0.0472
1.01

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1258
4.88***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0950
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8675
46.29***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0472
1.01

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days