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S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 16th, 2026

1 Day

27.36%

decreased by 1.31%

1 Week

28.11%

decreased by 0.56%

1 Month

30.70%

increased by 2.03%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 15, 2026 at 09:30 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/15/2024

to

10/15/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.1255
4.89***
αARCH0.0947
2.75***
βGARCH0.8677
46.44***
γleverage0.0473
1.01

0.986

Persistence

49d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.1255
4.89***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0947
2.75***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8677
46.44***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.0473
1.01

Persistence:

0.986

Half-life:

49 days