V-Lab
S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
25.13%
decreased by 0.98%
1 Week
26.01%
decreased by 0.10%
1 Month
29.01%
increased by 2.90%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 49 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 49 days.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 49-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.1258 | 4.88*** |
| αARCH | 0.0950 | 2.75*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8675 | 46.29*** |
| γleverage | 0.0472 | 1.01 |
0.986
Persistence49d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.1258 | 4.88*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0950 | 2.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8675 | 46.29*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.0472 | 1.01 |
Persistence:
0.986
Half-life:
49 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices