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V-Lab
V-Lab

S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

26.09%

decreased by 1.49%

1 Week

26.70%

decreased by 0.88%

1 Month

29.01%

increased by 1.43%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 09:06 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of S&P MERVAL Argentina Total Return Index ARS GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 5, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026
Extended Optimization
Boundary Parameters

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 693 trading days (~2.7 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 6.74 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~693 daysv = 6.74 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst67.1344
1.06
αARCH0.1004
19.92***
βGARCH0.9990
1,041.71***
νDF6.7424
3.83***

0.999

Persistence

693d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

67.1344
1.06
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1004
19.92***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9990
1,041.71***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

6.7424
3.83***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

693 days