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S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

28.72%

decreased by 0.71%

1 Week

28.77%

decreased by 0.66%

1 Month

28.98%

decreased by 0.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 619 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.999, shock half-life ~619 daysv = 8.02 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run8.5022
1.60
αscore0.0609
13.64***
βpersistence0.9989
1,629.49***
νDF8.0185
1.65*

0.999

Persistence

619d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

8.5022
1.60
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0609
13.64***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9989
1,629.49***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

8.0185
1.65*

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

619 days