V-Lab
S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, July 17th, 2026
1 Day
40.70%
decreased by 0.02%
1 Week
40.71%
decreased by 0.01%
1 Month
40.76%
increased by 0.04%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 11:35 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Mar 19, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 616 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 8.3195 | 6.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0599 | 53.42*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 6,444.35*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 7.8124 | 6.82*** |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
616 days
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