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V-Lab

S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, August 14th, 2026

1 Day

42.55%

decreased by 0.94%

1 Week

42.56%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

42.59%

decreased by 0.90%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 10:32 PM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1998 to Mar 19, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 616 trading days (~2.4 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 7.81 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

8.3195
6.50***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0599
53.42***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9989
6,444.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

7.8124
6.82***

Persistence:

0.999

Half-life:

616 days