S&P Asia 50 CME GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
28.72%
1 Week
28.77%
1 Month
28.98%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 06:40 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1998 to Oct 22, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.999, volatility shocks have a half-life of 619 trading days (~2.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 8.02 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 8.5022 | 1.60 |
| αscore | 0.0609 | 13.64*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9989 | 1,629.49*** |
| νDF | 8.0185 | 1.65* |
0.999
Persistence619d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 8.5022 | 1.60 |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0609 | 13.64*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9989 | 1,629.49*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 8.0185 | 1.65* |
Persistence:
0.999
Half-life:
619 days
Other S&P Asia 50 CME Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices