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Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, September 15th, 2026

1 Day

14.43%

decreased by 0.60%

1 Week

14.55%

decreased by 0.48%

1 Month

14.98%

decreased by 0.05%

Analysis last updated: Tuesday, September 15, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC

Date Range:

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to

6M ·

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2Y ·

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10Y ·

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graph of Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 136 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.59 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~136 daysv = 10.59 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.1290
1.75*
αARCH0.0865
12.86***
βGARCH0.9949
314.35***
νDF10.5898
1.56

0.995

Persistence

136d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.1290
1.75*
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0865
12.86***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9949
314.35***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.5898
1.56

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

136 days