Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

15.03%

increased by 0.39%

1 Week

15.13%

increased by 0.49%

1 Month

15.53%

increased by 0.89%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

High persistence: persistence 0.995, shock half-life ~135 daysv = 10.63 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωlong-run2.1172
1.75*
αscore0.0863
12.79***
βpersistence0.9949
312.07***
νDF10.6295
1.55

0.995

Persistence

135d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

long-run

Long-run variance given a price move

2.1172
1.75*
α

score

Weight on the scaled score

0.0863
12.79***
β

persistence

Volatility persistence

0.9949
312.07***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

10.6295
1.55

Persistence:

0.995

Half-life:

135 days