V-Lab
Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Wednesday, August 26th, 2026
1 Day
14.93%
decreased by 0.53%
1 Week
15.04%
decreased by 0.42%
1 Month
15.44%
decreased by 0.02%
Analysis last updated: Wednesday, August 26, 2026 at 12:04 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 137 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.56 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.1352 | 6.99*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0866 | 51.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 1,257.82*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.5601 | 6.26*** |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
137 days
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