Russell 2000 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026
1 Day
15.03%
1 Week
15.13%
1 Month
15.53%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 30, 2026 at 12:49 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
With persistence 0.995, volatility shocks have a half-life of 135 trading days (~0.5 years), close to a unit root, so long-run forecasts are highly sensitive to this estimate. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 10.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.1172 | 1.75* |
| αscore | 0.0863 | 12.79*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9949 | 312.07*** |
| νDF | 10.6295 | 1.55 |
0.995
Persistence135d
Half-lifeGAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.1172 | 1.75* |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.0863 | 12.79*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9949 | 312.07*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 10.6295 | 1.55 |
Persistence:
0.995
Half-life:
135 days
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