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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

13.82%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

14.33%

decreased by 0.90%

1 Month

16.05%

increased by 0.82%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9735
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1186
49.32***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9871
352.41***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1206
22.71***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days