Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Friday, October 9th, 2026
1 Day
16.45%
decreased by 0.07%
1 Week
16.82%
increased by 0.30%
1 Month
18.11%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:33 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 52 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 52 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 52-day half-lifev = 4.12 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9494 | 1.17 |
| αARCH | 0.1192 | 12.24*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9869 | 87.13*** |
| νDF | 4.1238 | 5.65*** |
0.987
Persistence52d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9494 | 1.17 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1192 | 12.24*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9869 | 87.13*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1238 | 5.65*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
52 days
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