V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
10.44%
decreased by 0.47%
1 Week
11.19%
increased by 0.28%
1 Month
13.60%
increased by 2.69%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 4.11 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 2.9873 | 1.15 |
| αARCH | 0.1189 | 12.40*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9872 | 88.28*** |
| νDF | 4.1116 | 5.73*** |
0.987
Persistence54d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9873 | 1.15 |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1189 | 12.40*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9872 | 88.28*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1116 | 5.73*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
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