Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Thursday, October 29th, 2026
1 Day
15.22%
increased by 0.24%
1 Week
15.72%
increased by 0.74%
1 Month
17.32%
increased by 2.34%
Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 08:40 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 31 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 31 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 5.63 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 31-day half-lifev = 5.63 · fat tails
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωlong-run | 2.4211 | 2.06** |
| αscore | 0.1427 | 9.96*** |
| βpersistence | 0.9775 | 89.57*** |
| νDF | 5.6328 | 3.21*** |
0.978
Persistence31d
Half-life𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω long-run Long-run variance given a price move | 2.4211 | 2.06** |
α score Weight on the scaled score | 0.1427 | 9.96*** |
β persistence Volatility persistence | 0.9775 | 89.57*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 5.6328 | 3.21*** |
Persistence:
0.978
Half-life:
31 days
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