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Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

10.44%

decreased by 0.47%

1 Week

11.19%

increased by 0.28%

1 Month

13.60%

increased by 2.69%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, September 5, 2026 at 05:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.11 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 54-day half-lifev = 4.11 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9873
1.15
αARCH0.1189
12.40***
βGARCH0.9872
88.28***
νDF4.1116
5.73***

0.987

Persistence

54d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9873
1.15
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1189
12.40***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9872
88.28***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1116
5.73***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days