V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
22.06%
decreased by 2.08%
1 Week
22.21%
decreased by 1.93%
1 Month
22.76%
decreased by 1.38%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9934 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1186 | 49.56*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9872 | 356.27*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1317 | 22.74*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
54 days
Other Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Analyses
Other GAS-GARCH Student T Analyses on Equity Indices