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Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, September 18th, 2026

1 Day

18.51%

decreased by 0.81%

1 Week

18.79%

decreased by 0.53%

1 Month

19.78%

increased by 0.46%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 06:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 14, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 53-day half-lifev = 4.12 · fat tails
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst2.9662
1.16
αARCH0.1193
12.23***
βGARCH0.9869
86.93***
νDF4.1195
5.65***

0.987

Persistence

53d

Half-life
𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9662
1.16
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1193
12.23***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9869
86.93***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1195
5.65***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

53 days