V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
13.82%
decreased by 1.41%
1 Week
14.33%
decreased by 0.90%
1 Month
16.05%
increased by 0.82%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 15, 2026 at 05:48 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 53 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 53 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.12 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.
𝑓
GAS-GARCH-T Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 2.9735 | 4.64*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1186 | 49.32*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9871 | 352.41*** |
ν DF Student-t tail thickness | 4.1206 | 22.71*** |
Persistence:
0.987
Half-life:
53 days
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