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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH Student T Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026

1 Day

22.06%

decreased by 2.08%

1 Week

22.21%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Month

22.76%

decreased by 1.38%

Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 25, 2026 at 09:51 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

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graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index GAS-GARCH-T

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026

Model Insight

Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 54 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 54 days. Returns follow a Student-t distribution with v = 4.13 degrees of freedom, capturing fatter tails than a normal distribution.

𝑓

GAS-GARCH-T Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

2.9934
4.64***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1186
49.56***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9872
356.27***
ν

DF

Student-t tail thickness

4.1317
22.74***

Persistence:

0.987

Half-life:

54 days