V-Lab
Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 24th, 2026
1 Day
13.43%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
14.04%
decreased by 0.00%
1 Month
15.75%
increased by 1.71%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, August 22, 2026 at 05:54 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 21, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6086 | 4.93*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1451 | 10.37*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8114 | 42.54*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -3.76*** |
| γ2 | 0.0214 | 3.57*** |
| γ3 | -0.0055 | -2.06** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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