Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 13th, 2026
1 Day
18.62%
decreased by 1.22%
1 Week
18.69%
decreased by 1.15%
1 Month
18.90%
decreased by 0.94%
Analysis last updated: Saturday, July 11, 2026 at 05:50 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.6080 | 4.92*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1452 | 10.33*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8112 | 42.32*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=3
| γ1 | -0.0164 | -3.74*** |
| γ2 | 0.0214 | 3.54*** |
| γ3 | -0.0054 | -2.01** |
Persistence:
0.956
Half-life:
16 days
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