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V-Lab

Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

22.17%

decreased by 1.93%

1 Week

21.97%

decreased by 2.13%

1 Month

21.35%

decreased by 2.75%

Analysis last updated: Sunday, August 2, 2026 at 02:08 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Karachi Stock Exchange KSE100 Index S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 16 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.6092
4.91***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1449
10.37***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8120
42.66***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=3
γ1-0.0164
-3.74***
γ20.0215
3.55***
γ3-0.0055
-2.05**

Persistence:

0.957

Half-life:

16 days