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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

27.17%

decreased by 1.63%

1 Week

26.96%

decreased by 1.84%

1 Month

26.25%

decreased by 2.55%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1365
10.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1119
9.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8608
70.70***
γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.41

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days