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Nikkei 225 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026

1 Day

22.62%

decreased by 1.41%

1 Week

22.64%

decreased by 1.39%

1 Month

22.69%

decreased by 1.34%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 9, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/09/2024

to

10/09/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1341
10.62***
αARCH0.1114
9.74***
βGARCH0.8613
71.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.40

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1341
10.62***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1114
9.74***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8613
71.06***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.40

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days