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Nikkei 225 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 30th, 2026

1 Day

24.78%

decreased by 0.84%

1 Week

24.69%

decreased by 0.93%

1 Month

24.38%

decreased by 1.24%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 29, 2026 at 07:02 AM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/29/2024

to

10/29/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 S0GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 23, 2026

Model Insight

This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.

τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst1.1342
10.56***
αARCH0.1112
9.76***
βGARCH0.8619
71.52***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.36

0.973

Persistence

25d

Half-life
τ

Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

1.1342
10.56***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1112
9.76***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8619
71.52***
∑γi Spline Coefficients
K=1
γ10.0002
1.36

Persistence:

0.973

Half-life:

25 days