V-Lab
Nikkei 225 Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 10th, 2026
1 Day
31.92%
decreased by 2.23%
1 Week
31.51%
decreased by 2.64%
1 Month
30.10%
decreased by 4.05%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 7, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Aug 7, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 25 trading days.
τ
Zero Slope Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.1375 | 10.57*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1119 | 9.75*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8610 | 70.84*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0002 | 1.41 |
Persistence:
0.973
Half-life:
25 days
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