V-Lab
Nikkei 225 APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
24.95%
1 Week
24.90%
1 Month
24.75%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 08:56 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 309% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0527 | 7.87*** |
| αARCH | 0.1024 | 9.12*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8829 | 82.13*** |
| γleverage | 0.5592 | 5.61*** |
| δpower | 1.1146 | 8.04*** |
0.967
Persistence21d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0527 | 7.87*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1024 | 9.12*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8829 | 82.13*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5592 | 5.61*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1146 | 8.04*** |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
21 days
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