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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Thursday, September 24th, 2026

1 Day

19.64%

decreased by 0.59%

1 Week

19.94%

decreased by 0.29%

1 Month

20.89%

increased by 0.66%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 18, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Sep 18, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 308% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.11 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 308% more than positive returnsδ = 1.11 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0528
7.86***
αARCH0.1024
9.13***
βGARCH0.8828
82.05***
γleverage0.5585
5.61***
δpower1.1140
8.03***

0.967

Persistence

21d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0528
7.86***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.1024
9.13***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8828
82.05***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5585
5.61***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1140
8.03***

Persistence:

0.967

Half-life:

21 days