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V-Lab
V-Lab

AEX-Index APARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026

1 Day

9.83%

decreased by 0.06%

1 Week

10.25%

increased by 0.36%

1 Month

11.72%

increased by 1.83%

Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index APARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.

σ

APARCH Model

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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 395% more than positive returnsδ = 1.17 · sub-quadratic power
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0265
8.17***
αARCH0.0886
8.80***
βGARCH0.9046
102.48***
γleverage0.5923
4.99***
δpower1.1738
10.86***

0.979

Persistence

33d

Half-life
σ

APARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0265
8.17***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0886
8.80***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.9046
102.48***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.5923
4.99***
δ

power

Transformation power

1.1738
10.86***

Persistence:

0.979

Half-life:

33 days