V-Lab
AEX-Index APARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
9.83%
1 Week
10.25%
1 Month
11.72%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 395% more than equivalent positive returns. The volatility power δ = 1.17 sits below 2, so large shocks influence volatility less than quadratically, a more outlier-robust response than standard GARCH.
APARCH Model
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| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0265 | 8.17*** |
| αARCH | 0.0886 | 8.80*** |
| βGARCH | 0.9046 | 102.48*** |
| γleverage | 0.5923 | 4.99*** |
| δpower | 1.1738 | 10.86*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeAPARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0265 | 8.17*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0886 | 8.80*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.9046 | 102.48*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.5923 | 4.99*** |
δ power Transformation power | 1.1738 | 10.86*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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