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V-Lab

AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Friday, October 2nd, 2026

1 Day

11.97%

increased by 1.92%

1 Week

12.26%

increased by 2.21%

1 Month

13.21%

increased by 3.16%

Analysis last updated: Thursday, October 1, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

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Date Range:

from

10/01/2024

to

10/01/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 25, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0250
4.60***
αARCH0.0228
2.07**
βGARCH0.8933
104.69***
γleverage0.1292
6.15***

0.981

Persistence

35d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0250
4.60***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0228
2.07**
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8933
104.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1292
6.15***

Persistence:

0.981

Half-life:

35 days