V-Lab
AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026
1 Day
10.05%
decreased by 0.19%
1 Week
10.47%
increased by 0.23%
1 Month
11.83%
increased by 1.59%
Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0253 | 18.48*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0225 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 416.69*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1299 | 24.70*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices