V-Lab
AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 27th, 2026
1 Day
12.74%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Week
12.98%
decreased by 0.21%
1 Month
13.81%
increased by 0.62%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 24, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Jul 24, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0254 | 18.50*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0225 | 8.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 416.50*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1299 | 24.68*** |
Persistence:
0.980
Half-life:
35 days
Other GJR-GARCH Analyses on Equity Indices