V-Lab
AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.33%
decreased by 0.38%
1 Week
12.60%
decreased by 0.11%
1 Month
13.49%
increased by 0.78%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 04:05 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 4.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0227 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.8930 | 104.39*** |
| γleverage | 0.1296 | 6.16*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0227 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 104.39*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1296 | 6.16*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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