AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 19th, 2026
1 Day
11.25%
decreased by 0.13%
1 Week
11.58%
increased by 0.20%
1 Month
12.68%
increased by 1.30%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 16, 2026 at 04:16 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 16, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0250 | 4.61*** |
| αARCH | 0.0227 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.8933 | 104.75*** |
| γleverage | 0.1293 | 6.16*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0250 | 4.61*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0227 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8933 | 104.75*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1293 | 6.16*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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