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V-Lab

AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 17th, 2026

1 Day

10.05%

decreased by 0.19%

1 Week

10.47%

increased by 0.23%

1 Month

11.83%

increased by 1.59%

Analysis last updated: Friday, August 14, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of AEX-Index GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 1, 1990 to Aug 14, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0253
18.48***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0225
8.18***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8930
416.69***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1299
24.70***

Persistence:

0.980

Half-life:

35 days