V-Lab
AEX-Index GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 7th, 2026
1 Day
9.74%
unchanged at 0.00%
1 Week
10.18%
increased by 0.44%
1 Month
11.60%
increased by 1.86%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 4, 2026 at 04:04 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 4, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0251 | 4.60*** |
| αARCH | 0.0228 | 2.06** |
| βGARCH | 0.8930 | 104.37*** |
| γleverage | 0.1297 | 6.16*** |
0.981
Persistence35d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0251 | 4.60*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0228 | 2.06** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8930 | 104.37*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1297 | 6.16*** |
Persistence:
0.981
Half-life:
35 days
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