Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026
1 Day
31.53%
increased by 0.89%
1 Week
31.14%
increased by 0.50%
1 Month
29.80%
decreased by 0.84%
Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 393% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0660 | 27.13*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0355 | 11.50*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8654 | 347.12*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1393 | 18.26*** |
Persistence:
0.970
Half-life:
23 days
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