Skip to main content
V-Lab
V-Lab

Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026

1 Day

20.15%

increased by 0.04%

1 Week

20.37%

increased by 0.26%

1 Month

21.08%

increased by 0.97%

Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Press Delete or Backspace to remove this series.
Date Range:

from

10/02/2024

to

10/02/2026

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 392% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 392% more than positive returns
ParamValuet-stat
ωconst0.0656
6.78***
αARCH0.0352
2.87***
βGARCH0.8662
87.45***
γleverage0.1382
4.57***

0.971

Persistence

23d

Half-life
σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0656
6.78***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0352
2.87***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8662
87.45***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1382
4.57***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days