V-Lab
Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, October 5th, 2026
1 Day
20.15%
increased by 0.04%
1 Week
20.37%
increased by 0.26%
1 Month
21.08%
increased by 0.97%
Analysis last updated: Friday, October 2, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 392% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: Negative returns increase volatility 392% more than positive returns
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0656 | 6.78*** |
| αARCH | 0.0352 | 2.87*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8662 | 87.45*** |
| γleverage | 0.1382 | 4.57*** |
0.971
Persistence23d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0656 | 6.78*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0352 | 2.87*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8662 | 87.45*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1382 | 4.57*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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