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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026

1 Day

37.76%

decreased by 0.54%

1 Week

37.10%

decreased by 1.20%

1 Month

34.85%

decreased by 3.45%

Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 394% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0657
27.11***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0354
11.47***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8656
348.34***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1394
18.35***

Persistence:

0.971

Half-life:

23 days