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V-Lab

Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis

Volatility prediction for Tuesday, July 14th, 2026

1 Day

31.53%

increased by 0.89%

1 Week

31.14%

increased by 0.50%

1 Month

29.80%

decreased by 0.84%

Analysis last updated: Monday, July 13, 2026 at 12:58 PM UTC

Date Range:

from

to

6M ·

1Y ·

2Y ·

5Y ·

10Y ·

All

graph of Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH

News Impact Curve

How returns affect tomorrow's volatility

Volatility Forecast

How volatility evolves over time

Parameter Estimates

Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 10, 2026

Model Insight

This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 393% more than equivalent positive returns.

σ

GJR-GARCH Model

Tap to view equation

ParameterValuet-statistic
ω

const

Unconditional variance weight

0.0660
27.13***
α

ARCH

Response to squared shocks

0.0355
11.50***
β

GARCH

Volatility persistence

0.8654
347.12***
γ

leverage

Additional response to negative shocks

0.1393
18.26***

Persistence:

0.970

Half-life:

23 days