V-Lab
Nikkei 225 GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, August 3rd, 2026
1 Day
37.76%
decreased by 0.54%
1 Week
37.10%
decreased by 1.20%
1 Month
34.85%
decreased by 3.45%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 31, 2026 at 07:03 AM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 31, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: negative returns increase next-day volatility 394% more than equivalent positive returns.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0657 | 27.11*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0354 | 11.47*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8656 | 348.34*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1394 | 18.35*** |
Persistence:
0.971
Half-life:
23 days
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