EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR GJR-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
15.92%
decreased by 0.61%
1 Week
16.08%
decreased by 0.45%
1 Month
16.61%
increased by 0.08%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
This asset exhibits a strong leverage effect: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks. The ARCH response to positive shocks is negligible.
σ
GJR-GARCH Model
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Leverage: volatility responds almost entirely to negative shocks
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0308 | 3.43*** |
| αARCH | 0.0115 | 1.14 |
| βGARCH | 0.8975 | 113.23*** |
| γleverage | 0.1410 | 5.90*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeσ
GJR-GARCH Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0308 | 3.43*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0115 | 1.14 |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8975 | 113.23*** |
γ leverage Additional response to negative shocks | 0.1410 | 5.90*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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