EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR MEM Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 13th, 2026
1 Day
14.13%
decreased by 1.08%
1 Week
14.59%
decreased by 0.62%
1 Month
16.09%
increased by 0.88%
Analysis last updated: Monday, October 12, 2026 at 06:03 PM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Feb 25, 1998 to Oct 9, 2026Model Insight
Volatility shocks decay with a half-life of 33 trading days, meaning a shock loses half its impact after approximately 33 days.
μ
MEM Model
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Shock decay: Shocks decay with a 33-day half-life
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.0434 | 2.45** |
| αARCH | 0.2375 | 12.18*** |
| βGARCH | 0.7416 | 59.26*** |
0.979
Persistence33d
Half-lifeμ
MEM Model
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| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.0434 | 2.45** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.2375 | 12.18*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.7416 | 59.26*** |
Persistence:
0.979
Half-life:
33 days
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