V-Lab
EURO STOXX 50 Price EUR Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, September 14th, 2026
1 Day
12.49%
increased by 0.26%
1 Week
12.59%
increased by 0.36%
1 Month
12.92%
increased by 0.69%
Analysis last updated: Friday, September 11, 2026 at 06:34 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 1, 1990 to Sep 11, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 0.9587 | 5.46*** |
| αARCH | 0.0958 | 9.58*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8708 | 72.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0056 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0637 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1459 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.1723 | 6.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.1494 | -6.08*** |
| γ6 | 0.0899 | 3.03*** |
| γ7 | -0.0143 | -0.46 |
| γ8 | -0.0541 | -1.25 |
0.967
Persistence20d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 0.9587 | 5.46*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0958 | 9.58*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8708 | 72.57*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=8
| γ1 | -0.0056 | -0.18 |
| γ2 | 0.0637 | 1.17 |
| γ3 | -0.1459 | -3.83*** |
| γ4 | 0.1723 | 6.73*** |
| γ5 | -0.1494 | -6.08*** |
| γ6 | 0.0899 | 3.03*** |
| γ7 | -0.0143 | -0.46 |
| γ8 | -0.0541 | -1.25 |
Persistence:
0.967
Half-life:
20 days
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