Ibovespa Brasil Sao Paulo Stock Exchange Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Monday, July 20th, 2026
1 Day
16.38%
decreased by 0.80%
1 Week
16.30%
decreased by 0.88%
1 Month
16.05%
decreased by 1.13%
Analysis last updated: Friday, July 17, 2026 at 09:27 PM UTC
News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
Jan 2, 1990 to Jul 17, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 20 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 4.5843 | 6.03*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.0828 | 7.90*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8831 | 72.06*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=4
| γ1 | 0.0366 | 5.69*** |
| γ2 | -0.0412 | -4.67*** |
| γ3 | 0.0093 | 1.69* |
| γ4 | -0.0159 | -1.80* |
Persistence:
0.966
Half-life:
20 days
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