V-Lab
Russell 1000 Growth Index Spline-GARCH Volatility Analysis
Volatility prediction for Tuesday, October 6th, 2026
1 Day
16.52%
increased by 0.16%
1 Week
17.05%
increased by 0.69%
1 Month
18.81%
increased by 2.45%
Analysis last updated: Tuesday, October 6, 2026 at 09:18 AM UTC
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News Impact Curve
How returns affect tomorrow's volatilityVolatility Forecast
How volatility evolves over timeParameter Estimates
May 12, 2000 to Oct 2, 2026Model Insight
This model fits a time-varying baseline (a spline), so volatility mean-reverts toward a slowly-shifting long-run level rather than a constant. Short-run deviations decay with a half-life of 38 trading days.
τ
Spline-GARCH Model
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Time-varying baseline: volatility reverts to a slowly-shifting spline trend
| Param | Value | t-stat |
|---|---|---|
| ωconst | 1.2719 | 7.24*** |
| αARCH | 0.1059 | 10.48*** |
| βGARCH | 0.8759 | 81.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0045 | 3.42*** |
0.982
Persistence38d
Half-lifeτ
Spline-GARCH Model
Tap to view equation
| Parameter | Value | t-statistic |
|---|---|---|
ω const Unconditional variance weight | 1.2719 | 7.24*** |
α ARCH Response to squared shocks | 0.1059 | 10.48*** |
β GARCH Volatility persistence | 0.8759 | 81.42*** |
Spline Coefficients
K=1
| γ1 | 0.0045 | 3.42*** |
Persistence:
0.982
Half-life:
38 days
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